If oil is the planet's drug, then cold turkey time is coming up way faster than we think. The moment of 'peak oil' - the moment when the maximum global petroleum production has been reached - could be just a few years away according to some estimates. Yet by 2030 the world is projected to need nearly double the quantity we are using now.
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Michael Klare
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The previous thinking said that Saudi Arabia had enough reserves to take care of our future needs but that line has been all but squashed now. The Saudi oil fields have seen their best days and though their reserves are still vast, the idea that they could almost double their output in the next 20 years is simply not feasible.
There is actually not that much easily accessible oil available in the world, and the places where the oil does flow are increasingly going to be the venues where the superpowers will be circling, poised to fight for control.
Oil and blood
Oil and blood have always gone together hand in hand - and nowhere more so than the Middle East according to Professor Michael Klare, author of the book Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum. He was recently in Amsterdam for a lecture for the Society for International Development. Mr Klare says:
"Whoever controls the Persian Gulf controls the economic power of the world."
He calls the Bay of Hormuz in the Gulf, which sees the transport of 40 percent of the world's oil, as a strategic prize because it's 'the spigot' to the world's oil.
"And the United States won't let anyone else control the spigot."
Carter Doctrine
According to Professor Klare, it is not so much about having the oil for domestic use, as much as having the control of who gets to have the oil.
That's why Jimmy Carter already declared 30 years ago that the region was a priority American strategic interest and that any move by a hostile power to gain control of the Persian Gulf area would be regarded "as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America". This policy known as the Carter Doctrine has governed US strategy in the Gulf since.
US and Europe consume the most oil
Michael Klare warns that The Age of Petroleum is drawing to a close and yet the newly emerging economic giants such as China, India and Brazil are increasing car production, building new highways and their fuel consumption is skyrocketing.
But is it fair for the wealthy West to ask the developing world to slow down its oil consumption? After all, it is still the United States, and Europe who are still by far the largest oil consumers and the worst offenders in terms of carbon emissions.
Michael Klare doesn't disagree that the people of the developing nations are also allowed the comforts and luxuries we in the West enjoy, but he urges a different kind of development. He advises not to follow the American model of the huge house, several cars, and so on. Perhaps, he says, the Dutch model would be better: railway networks, bicycles and smaller cars.
Tags:
Carter Doctrine,
Michael Klare,
oil,
Persian Gulf,
petroluem,
Saudi Arabia,
Society for International Development,
United States
Carlos Borjal,
25-02-2008
- USA
Why are people giving up on the ability of the human race to come up with an alternative to fossil fuel? The oil era will no doubt come to end but the resiliency of humanity to come up with new alternatives are limitless. The promise of artificial petroleum through nanotechnology will be a reality in fifty years. That would be before the predicted peak will even happen. Have patience people, it will happen.
George J. Papagiannes,
03-12-2007
- USA
Within the realm of common daily experience, the realtiy does not present itself in any meaningful way to make people aware that a crisis of catastrophic proportions is coming at full speed to interrupt or even destroy their lives. Every method being used to inform people is not working. Politicians, scientists, teachers, and media of every kind are not emphasizing the serious nature of this impending crisis. It appears that the first half of the 21st Century will be one in which oil supplies will be depleted, due to an abundance of apathy, ignorance, and denial.
William Jorgensen,
28-11-2007
- Australia
According to other estimates peak-oil has already arrived. Russia has out-produced Saudi Arabia for the past two months and a Saudi decline is almost certain. When you factor in the decline in the North Sea, and the collapse of the Mexican (Pemex) Cantarell field, American supplies are in for a shock sometime very soon.
The non-OPEC suppliers hold more oil reserves than OPEC now and are the nations who will last the longest in the societal declines to come. OPEC can barely keep up with demand now and has little , if any, spare supply to speak of.
Control of the Persian Gulf means less now than it used to. Iran is one of the few suppliers with any spare capacity as many possible fields haven't yet been exploited to their maximum potential, however, should anyone care to try a take this from them it would have the same result as the Iraqi attempt - less oil production, not more.
Every country will have to make huge changes when the time comes but most won't be able to, especially those countries who rely the most on oil - America most certainly. The Netherlands may be able to do better than most and not as well as some, it will mostly depend on how close your agriculture is to your population centres and how well you can produce food without the fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides that come from oil-stock.
brian mccluskey,
27-11-2007
- usa
If the subject isn't about overpopulation: not worth discussing. We are in population overshoot and nobody wants to talk about it. Continue to contaminate your bed and some night you will die in your own waste. The end of living the beginning of survival. Situation hopeless.
Albert Bates,
27-11-2007
- USA
If you get it wrong about the timing of Peak Oil your civilization dies. If you get it wrong about climate change, your planet dies. Those who begin to live today like there will be a tomorrow will not only be better off through the Peak Oil changes, but just might save the Earth in the bargain.
-- Albert Bates, author
The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook: Recipes for Changing Times
Jan Velema,
25-11-2007
- Canada
When the oil runs out the time is ripe to bring down civilization. Humanity needs to get back to the real World. It is inevitable.
Daniel Draffen,
23-11-2007
- USA
I agree fully that having more passenger rail service and bicycles is a good idea and a way to both improve health and kick the carbon habit. Unfortunately, trying to get local governments to incorporate bicycle paths, sidewalks and public transport into their highway spending plans is challenging, to say the least. Mostly, city councils just scoff at the idea of adding sidewalks or bike paths along streets and roadways. After all, they are 'addicted to oil' and the 'car-centric' way of life. Bicycles are a nuisance to most people. They would rather add more lanes to roads and add more SUV's. We need to get out and demonstrate and make a lot more noise to get people to 'wake up' to the peak oil crisis that is happening about right now.
Daniel Draffen
