According to the AIVD, the Dutch secret service, the terrorist threat from radical Islamic quarters is increasing, both in the Netherlands and elsewhere in the world.
In its annual report for 2007 the AIVD also confirms what other intelligence sources have said previously: al-Qaeda is gaining influence after being effectively out of action for years.
The threat in the Netherlands
For the public, however, there is a much more interesting question: what is the level of terrorist threat in the Netherlands? Gerard Bouman, the new head of the AIVD, gave a measured response.
"We observe that the threat has increased. As to the question of whether it is still safe in the Netherlands, I would say I still think the Netherlands is still safe. Having said that, I don't mean we aren't constantly on the alert for possible developments that could possibly lead to an attack. There has been both an increase in the actual threat and also an increase in the conceivable threat, and that is more on an analytical basis."
Jihadists more active
The AIVD describes the truly violent sector as "jihadist networks". In the Netherlands, "after a period of relative calm", these have become rather more active again, although the report says they don't represent any specific threat. This would seem to contradict the "increased threat" which AIVD head Gerard Bouman referred to during the presentation of the report.
Partly on the basis of AIVD information, the terrorist threat level was recently raised from "limited" to "substantial". This was due both to increased activity on the part of jihadist networks elsewhere in Europe (including foiled attacks) and the commotion surrounding the film Fitna made by Dutch MP Geert Wilders. The head of the AIVD praised the Dutch Muslim community for what he described as its "restrained reaction" to the film.
Spies
In its 2007 annual report the AIVD is unusually open about foreign espionage in the Netherlands. Gerard Bouman is more candid than usual in naming the countries involved.
"What we've seen recently is that a number of countries are developing intelligence activities. We've named two of them in the annual report, the Russian Federation and China. And what I can say is that we have moved a number of intelligence officers from more than one service to return to their country of origin."
The AIVD chief wasn't prepared to say exactly how many foreign spies have left the country on the basis of his information.
What does this spying actually involve? The AIVD says Russia is attempting to "gather secret information on the energy sector", while China wants to influence the Chinese community in the Netherlands and carry out economic espionage.
In 2007 there were also cyber attacks from China, or as the AIVD formally puts it, "digital intrusions into vital Dutch ICT networks directed from China". As to who or what was responsible for directing them, the head of the Dutch secret service wasn't willing to say.
* RNW translation (mb)
Tags: AIVD, China, Dutch, Islam, Jihadists, Russia, secret service, security, spies