By RNW correspondent Geert Groot Koerkamp*
25-08-2008
President Dmitry Medvedev has signed a decree formally recognising the independence of Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The recognition follows a unanimous vote in both houses of the Russian parliament to support the struggle of South Ossetia and Abkhazia for independence.
These developments do not come as a surprise. As early as last week, the speaker of the Federation Council, Russia's upper house, announced parliament was ready to recognise the independence of both Georgian provinces "as long as that was the wish of their populations and of President Dmitry Medvedev". The decision could have unforeseeable consequences.
Breakaway regions in the Caucasus
Rest your cursor on the "i" boxes in the map for more information
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Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhasia's independence - what does it mean in practice?
Cedric Ryngaert, a lecturer in International Law at Utrecht University explains:
- Both Georgian provinces now fulfil the requirements for being registered as a state. The requirement being the recognition as such by at least one other state.
- That does not mean that other states must recognize them too. In fact, chances that they will do so are pretty small.
- South Ossetia and Abkhazia can now ask for membership of the United Nations. It is almost certain that such a request will be turned down.
- Both provinces, now states, henceforth possess their own territory, have their own population and have constitutional autonomy (i.e. they are allowed to make their own laws). They can also establish international relations, and are entitled to have their own defence force.
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Last week, after the fighting in South Ossetia had subsided, thousands of people assembled in the provincial capital, Tskhinvali, and also in that of Abkhazia, Sukhumi. These 'people's meetings' in both cities called on Russia to recognise the independence of the breakaway provinces.
The gist of the meetings was that, after all that had happened, it was now impossible even to contemplate living in a unified Georgia. "
We can only live together as two independent countries," said the Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh.
Nationality
Russia has given the two provinces military and economic support since their
de facto independence, achieved with Russian military help at the start of the 1990s.
Most of the two province's populations have received Russian nationality but, up to now, Russia had stopped short of recognising them as independent states. Such a step could have unforeseeable consequences for various separatist 'problem regions' in Russia itself. In the early 1990s, before the first war in Chechnya, Shamil Basayev, one of the most prominent Chechen separatist fighters and infamous as a ruthless hostage taker, had fought on the side of Abkhazia against Georgia.
The recognition could also lead to Russia's international isolation. Kosovo's declaration of independence and its recognition by a large number of countries was fiercely criticised by Russia.
Moscow argued that Kosovan independence would serve as a precedent which could have serious consequences for a number of conflict areas in the Caucasus. Nevertheless, Russia did not recognise the independence of South Ossetia or Abkhazia, and carried on recognising Georgian territorial integrity.
Breaking point
The recent war in and around South Ossetia has proved a breaking point. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has now clearly stated that Georgia's territorial integrity depends on the will of the South Ossetian and Abkhaz people. Russia's parliament believes South Ossetia and Abkhazia have more right to independence than Kosovo. One of their most important arguments is the allegation of "genocide" said to have been perpetrated by Georgia in both provinces. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week talked about Georgia's "ethnic cleansing" in South Ossetia.
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President Sergey Bagapsh
of Abkhazia
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Refugees
The allegations should be thoroughly investigated, but so should counter claims on the Georgian side. Thousands of ethnic Georgians have fled the war zone since the beginning of August. Many of them have stories of murder, looting and arson in their villages, both in South Ossetia itself, and in the vicinity of Gori, which is in undisputed Georgian territory.
It is not clear whether these refugees will be able to return to their homes, or whether they will suffer the same fate as tens of thousands of non-Abkhaz people who were expelled from Abkhazia at the beginning of the 1990s and, 15 years later, are still waiting to see if they will ever be able to go home.
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President Eduard Kokoity of South Ossetia (Wikipedia photo)
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South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity has already ruled out "Georgian enclaves" in South Ossetia. This does not hold out much hope for the most recent flood of Georgian refugees.
Diametrically opposed
Even though open hostilities between Georgia and Abkhazia have ceased, the positions of the two sides are still diametrically opposed to each other. President Medvedev has responded angrily to NATO's threat to suspend co-operation with Russia for the time being. He says such co-operation is "for the most part in NATO's rather than in Russia's interest". Moscow has meanwhile frozen diplomatic and military contacts with NATO.
The European Union accuses Russia of not honouring the EU peace plan brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy after talks with both Russia and Georgia. Under the deal, Russia agreed to withdraw its forces from Georgia back to their original positions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moscow's troops are, however, still deployed in various areas of Georgia, far from the zones of conflict. This is the reason President Sarkozy is calling an emergency EU summit on 1 September.
* RNW translation (mw)
Tags:
Abkhazia,
Dmitry Medvedev,
Eduard Kokoity,
Georgia,
independence,
Russia,
Sergey Bagapsh,
South Ossetia
ron,
26-08-2008
- USA
Dr Demosphen is right on the spot.
Carlos van Borjal,
26-08-2008
- USA
I’m not sure Russia would risk a cold war type of relationship with the West. It was Western investments and markets that made Russia it is today. You cut off that lifeline you pretty much cut off progress, Russia just can’t afford a policy of isolationism, those days are over. What would they do? Trade exclusively with Asia and the Arab countries? That's an economic no-brainer I would definitely say “nyet” to that. However, I admire “Czar” Putin for his leadership in bringing the country back to respectability in a relatively short time. He’s in my mind, a commendable person. Leaders like him are rare in today’s world, he’s brilliant, gutsy, calculating, but fair. We hadn’t had one like him since John F. Kennedy.
Takashi Tsushima,
26-08-2008
- Japan
Recent infighting between South Ossetia and Georgia has been lowered tensions tamed by French brokering peace mediation, but the situation is being on brink of opening a tinder box again if Russia raises an ante to put permanent Russia military stations in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia under de facto Russia Control corresponded with defense shield plans in Poland and Czech. What really moves Russia has voiced extensively to Abkhazia with strong stance is not only attributed to huge natural resource deposits that hold good for playing a diplomatic card to EU and the United States, but may future Russian military planning make a straight point rather than natural resource exploitation. As I've conceived that Russia's Black Sea Fleet has moored in Sevastpol, Ukraine presumably until 2017. In case of Ukraine swift response to the unexpected supports from EU and the Unites States to become a new member of NATO in a near future, Russia needs to pre-empt for retaining other ports around Abkhazia for anchoring the Fleet before happening it. On the other hand, Russia may also have an alternative plan for frequent Fleet presence in Tartus and Latakia, Syria that strengthen Russia's naval military presence in Mediterranean, carrying with state-of-the-art surface-to-air missile threatened to Israel, and neighboring Arab countries that induce further military race. There are other reasons for Russia's military presence to keep an eye on future conceptions of oil and gas pipelines from Russia by way of Bulgaria and Greece through Turkey and Syria.
Sergei,
26-08-2008
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Your correspondent is confused and the chosen title is misleading. Russia hasn't recognized those territories as independent countries yet. Both houses of the Russian parliament can vote as often as they wish but the formal recognition requires president's signature and then corresponding actions from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The people of S.Ossetia and Abkhazia are well protected now and the Georgian military machine is destroyed. The issue of recognition isn't so urgent any more. I guess in the near future the threat of recognition will be used as both a carrot and a stick in Russia's broad relations with the West.
Moderator's response:
Yes Sergei, you are correct, the original version of the story was premature, and the opening paragraph and headline were changed. However, 24 hours later President Medvedev has indeed signed a decree formally recognising these two regions as independent. But at the time you posted your message, he hadn't, so your comment was valid.
Dr Demosphen,
26-08-2008
- New Zealand
West has to stop demonising Russia and treat it as a partner. That's the only thing Russia wants. Russians don't like being talked down to. As Putin himself said: "we are not against dialogue, but we want dialogue that acknowledges the equality of both parties." That's what West has to understand. Instead West is trying to start another Cold War.
David Berridge,
25-08-2008
- Canada
The "independence' of these two provinces will be very much short lived as no doubt very soon, referenda for these provinces to rejoin Russia will be held with more than predictable results. Georgia will then be faced with attempting to claim back territory claimed to be integrally part of Russia. The only realistic course of action left to the Georgian government will then be to do what it can to enlist international assistance (practical and diplomatic) in helping those loyal to Georgia to return to their preferred country from the separatist provinces, under the aegis and recognized protection of international supervision.
Steve in Wisconsin,
24-08-2008
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I have been following Russia's REGNUM News Agency which is now reporting a buildup of Georgian forces near Kadori Gorge at the time of this comment.
