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Only short-term gains in South Ossetia

by Geert Groot Koerkamp in Tbilisi*

12-08-2008

South Ossetians flee the violence 
South Ossetians flee the violence (EPA photo) 

The South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali has been reduced to rubble. Russian fighter planes have bombarded targets in the Georgian city of Gori and in the vicinity of the capital, Tbilisi. Countless people have been killed and tens of thousands of Georgians and South Ossetians have been trying to flee the violence. It is a reality that no more than a week ago, only a very few would have thought possible.

The odd Muscovite journalist who suggested that increasing tensions in South Ossetia could escalate into full-blown war was once sneered at. The prevailing view was that a war was impossible, as it would not be in anyone's interests. A war would only create losers.

Songs
War came anyway, but any political gains that may have been made will be no more than short-term ones. Take, for example, the case of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili whose taking of 'firm' action in South Ossetia has enjoyed wide support in his country, and who has even been praised by his greatest domestic political rivals. He has called Russia the 'aggressor', accusing it of targeting his tiny - by comparison with its bigger neighbour - country.

Georgian radio has been continually broadcasting patriotic songs. Russian television stations, which Georgia says have been broadcasting propaganda, have been taken off the air in Georgia. As a result, the Georgian people have seen little and been scarcely aware of the destruction in Tskhinvali.

Then there are the short-term gains for the leaders of the de facto independent region of South Ossetia that is recognised by no one - not even the Russians. They derive their authority and popularity mainly from their role in the years of conflict with Georgia. Clad in combat fatigues, they have led the fight against the Georgians and have become heroes in the eyes of both the South Ossetians and the North Ossetians across the border in Russia. They too know, should any doubt still remain on this point, that the South Ossetians will never, never again agree to live under the flag of Georgia.

Hitler
Finally, Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev has been reaping some short-term benefits too, as the situation has presented him with the opportunity to shake off his 'soft' image and to reveal himself to be a resolute leader instead of a liberal-minded lawyer. All day long Russian television stations have been churning out images of President Medvedev - not to forget Prime Minister Vladimir Putin - meeting with army leaders.

The Georgians have been right on this point: the Russian TV channels have been disseminating propaganda in a way that has been exceptional even by Russian standards. They have compared Saakashvili with Hitler; on all stations Russia and South Ossetia have been portrayed as 'the goodies' and the Georgians are, of course, 'the baddies'. Prime Minister Putin's words on the military tactics and actions on the part of the Georgians and the consequences of the fighting have all had an element of truth in them, albeit that without exception everything he has said has also applied to himself and Russia.

For those able to see through the fog of propaganda, the images alone tell a significant part of the true story. But that which has been kept silent is just as significant. While the bombardments of the Georgian city of Gori and their aftermath have not been shown, a Russian army spokesperson has been quoted saying that there have been 'no victims' of the Russian operations in Georgia. That alone is clearly not true.

Winter games
Both sides in this conflict have been provoking each other to the limit in the hope that the other would give in and step into the trap. Perhaps that is what the Georgians have done. In their attempt to win back control over South Ossetia, they may have spoilt their chances of joining NATO. Membership may already have been promised, but Georgia can now forget joining NATO, in the medium term at least. That is in itself a victory for Russia, as Moscow wanted to prevent that very thing at any cost.

Russia has also taken the opportunity to deal a severe blow to Georgia's military capacity. It appears to have achieved that, thus warding off the threat - for the time being at least - of another conflict in Abkhazia. That too is good news for Moscow, for it leaves nothing standing in the way of the Winter Olympics in 2014, to be held just over the border in Russia.

However, there are more losers than winners. First and foremost there are the people, those living in the devastated South Ossetian and Georgian towns and cities, and then there is the peace process itself. The past 16 years have shown how difficult it is to bring the two sides a little closer to each other. Now the two sides are further apart than ever before.

* RNW translation (nc/tpf) 

 

Tags: Georgia, Medvedev, Moscow, Russia, Saakashvili, South Ossetia, Tbilisi, Tskhinvali, war

Reaction(s):


Mamuka, 21-08-2008 - Georgia

“KGBKillerPutin, you are nothing more than a liar and a brainwashed American fool with an American citizenship (or maybe just with a greencard).Georgia is a corrupted puppet democracy and I know because I have been there NUMEROUS times in the past few years. This is something US loves to do since the beginning of so called Cold War. Russia doesn't want Georgia to have anything to do with NATO or the U.S.Everyone knows this. US is the land of the KKK members wandering the streets of Washington and New York killing anyone other than Anglo-Saxon types with a white skin. USA the land where police are more corrupting than the criminals they arrest. USA, the country whose president’s IQ is less than 95, whose father is ex-CIA and ordered to blow up WTC buildings, ethnic cleansing killer of many people OUTSIDE of the borders of his own country. Remember Kosovo? Bush had over 400,000 Yugoslavian civilians removed from the planet and aided to split this country and tear it apart. Now USA is sending the big bad Secretary of the State in order to spread their propaganda. Even having a their puppet president of Georgia say it was "Russia who attacked Georgia”. This is all absurd lies and the propaganda machine of the USA and satellites. People with a higher IQ level can surely see this. Sadly, the USA population of sheep, does, listens and says whatever “Dubya” Bush and co. tells them to.” Bon Appétit! :)


KGBKillerPutin, 17-08-2008 - Washington

Axar, you are nothing more than a liar and a brainwashed Russian fool with an American greencard (or maybe even citizenship).Georgia is a corruption free democracy and I know because I have been there NUMEROUS times in the past few years. This is something Russia HATES. Russia doesn't want Georgia to have anything to do with NATO or the U.S.Everyone knows this.Russia; the land of the skinheads wandering the streets of Moscow and St.Petersberg killing anyone other than Russo-Slav. Russia the land where police are more corrupt than the criminals they arrest. Russia, the country whose president is an ex-KGB, ethnic cleansing killer of journalists and political opponents. Remember Chechnya? Putin had over 200,000 Chechen civilians removed from the planet. Now Russia is sending the big bad Gorbachev to the U.S. in order to spread their propaganda. Even having a little 12-year-old girl say it was "Georgia who attacked us”. This is all absurd lies and the propaganda machine of the Russian Federation. People with a higher IQ level can surely see this. Sadly, the Russian population of sheep, does, listens and says whatever Putin tells them to.


Thomas, 13-08-2008 - USA

How quaint, Isn't it: Russia invades a small country and the blabbering leftists immediately accuse the US and Israel with unspecified crimes. The putrid Russians killed thousands just yesterday and the World stays silent. But when a Palestinian TOE! got hurt, the UN, the EU, Human Right Org. issue protest for ONE TOE. The West is Dead. Liberal democracy turned against itself, it's a drooling self-loathing transnational un-nation. No wonder people turn to strong leaders like the leader of putrid Russia the land of the Gulag, genocide and vodka induced stupor. The new generation of Useful Idiots who run the West deserve derision and contempt for their craven appeasement of Evil. Putin will destroy single-handedly the EU which is nothing more than a can of emasculated worms trembling in fear from the imported imams who will sweep them away. And the US is not far behind. On the outside the Bear is spewing icy wind towards the EU so you better buy a wood burning stove or else... The West is Dead and so deservedly. One feels sorry for the innocent, future victims on the pernicious path of the Soviets: those are for Whom the Bell Tolls... The West committed suicide and there is no way out from this predicament.


Jim Wilson, 12-08-2008 - USA

Why is it that the reports from Israeli sources detailing American and Israeli cooperation in training Georgian military for this incursion don't even draw a mention here? With us looking on, this ridiculous game was allowed to proceed to inevitable failure. Exactly what was the point?


Axar, 12-08-2008 - USA

Dear Geert, I want to point out unlike what current US administration, local media and John McCain would dearly like you to believe the current Georgian leadership is corrupt, totalitarian and militaristic. The overall country does not like this leadership, as we have seen many protests over the last few years. While the Georgian government enjoys ample support from the West, the country is one of the least democratic and most poor in the region. We (the USA) is keeping that regime in power because we are over reliant on foreign oil. This is causing us to ignore the malicious tendencies of Saakashvili regime. For example last year, when facing weeks of unarmed and democratic protests, Saakashvili had his troops open gun fire onto protesters. In time we will see McCain and Obama condemning Saakashvili for killing of many innocent civilians in South Ossetia. The other hard to swallow pill is that we armed and trained the Georgian army. If we did not give them those funds, Georgia would have not attacked as it could not be able to keep its army force. So I guess we funded the deaths of many of these people. Georgia is currently very corrupt and poor; military and government provides most of the jobs. Since USA provides most of the funds for Georgia - I am sure it determines where the projects go. Thus delegates, like McCain, who visit Georgia get treated extra well and get "special" perks. Throw in an oil pipeline running through Georgia, and there is little limit to the fun. Especially ones planning to run for president and who has been there 32 or more times. Furthermore Saakashvili is bad for Georgia. He did very little to improve Georgian economy. His regime has banished the opposition and lowered human rights standards, as stated by many human rights watch dogs. His actively supports the use of force vs. diplomacy to resolve his issues. Really he is our puppet leader and we need to remove him, before he turns into another Osama Bin Laden, Hussian, etc. For more equal opinion read German, UK and French media; they have English versions of online sites.


Sergei, 12-08-2008 - USA

According to Reuters, Russian media got some major help from the Brussels-based PR specialists in spinning the war story. No wonder that Russian TV coverage was very similar to Western channels' reporting on bombardments of Yugoslavia. US-financed R.Libery reported that local Georgian media were filled with "hysterical propaganda" instead of the news coverage.


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