One would think that the last thing the survivors of Cyclone Nargis which struck Burma on the first week of May would have on their minds is a referendum. However on Saturday residents of the region will vote in a referendum on a new constitution.. The rest of the country voted on 10 May, just a week after the disaster.
State television then played a tune "Let's go cast a vote with sincere thoughts for happy days." Which only goes to show that the Burmese junta is intent on staying in power no matter what it costs.
 UN chief Ban Ki-moon in Burma to plead with the regime to allow more aid in |
Legitimisation
The constitution which the Burmese people have been asked to approve is an important step in legitimising the army's political power. The military is guaranteed 25 percent of the seats in parliament and greater powers. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been effectively eliminated from serving as head of state because of a stipulation that the new leader cannot have contacts with ‘foreign powers'. Ms Suu Kyi was married to the British professor Michael Aris, who died of cancer in 1999. However she kept her Burmese citizenship.
Façade
The army also wants to use the new constitution as a smokescreen for the benefit of the international community. The country has been without a constitution since the 1988 coup. The junta, which calls itself the State Law and Order Restoration Council, is often the target of sanctions by Western countries and the United Nations because of its human rights violations and its refusal to introduce democratic reforms.
The regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is already embarrassed about having a member which is seen by the West as a pariah, has in recent years repeatedly called on the junta to institute political reforms.
Junta manipulation
Opponents of the draft constitution say that most of the approximately 1,000 delegates to the National Convention, which is responsible for writing the constitution, were chosen by the junta. The National Convention first met in 1993. Representatives of Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy withdrew from the convention in 1995 saying there was no free and open debate.
Preparations for the referendum took place in a atmosphere of intimidation. It was illegal to conduct a campaign against the referendum and anyone who attempted to was arrested. Pressure was brought to bear on public servants and soldiers to accept the constitution. The 450,000 monks, who the regime fears because of the protests of recent years, are not allowed to vote.
Results already known
No independent observers were present on 10 May, when the referendum took place in most of the country's regions. There were reports of incidences of fraud and intimidation throughout the country. The authorities reported a 99 percent turnout, with 92.4 percent voting in favour of the new constitution. It is obvious that the result of the second round has already been decided.
Elections must be held within two years of official approval of the constitution. Many Burmese doubt they will be any more free and fair than the referendum. The National League for Democracy, which won the 1990 elections by a large majority, now operates in the margins of society while Ms Suu Kyi is still under house arrest. However, some people say that even a slight chance of democracy is better than no chance.
Although the junta is holding tightly to the reins of power, there are still many factors which could lead to unexpected developments: a new economic crisis in the aftermath of the recent disaster, growing unrest and poverty and a change in leadership.
Tags: ASEAN, Aung San Suu Kyi, Birma, Myanmar, Nargis