The radicalisation of young Muslims, most of them from a Moroccan background, continues unabated; terrorist networks are growing more diffuse and hence more difficult to keep tabs on. The AIVD also warns that, in the worst-case scenario, Dutch society could risk falling apart along ethnic and religious lines.
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| Click to listen to an exclusive interview with AIVD chief Sybrand van Hulst | |
The AIVD's latest report points to a change that's taken place since 2003 within radical Islamic groups operating inside the Netherlands. Up until 2003, some mosques provided their main source of inspiration. There was also a strong foreign influence from, for example, veterans of the jihad who'd fought in places such as Afghanistan and Chechnya, and from foreign 'preachers', including the man known as "the Syrian", Radwan al-Issa, regarded as the man who inspired the members of the Hofstad group.
The AIVD reports that, since 2003, the dominant trend has been towards the domestic and autonomous radicalisation of young Muslims. There's also been an increase in the role played by the Internet - both in terms of the process of radicalisation as well as in maintaining contacts - while the part played by mosques has dwindled. The Dutch intelligence services emphasises, however, that radicalisation in itself doesn't necessarily mean that those who undergo such a change will turn to violent action. The AIVD report in fact employs a new term for the final 'step' some may take to a violent course of action: "jihadisation" (in Dutch: 'jihadisering')
Domestic targets
According to the AIVD, the pattern of radicalisation in the Netherlands differs little, in broad terms, from that found in other European countries. However, there are a number of aspects which appear to be unique to this country. Jihadists in other countries, for instance, appear not to be so directly interested in domestic targets, unlike the Netherlands with the 2004 murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh, the threats to the lives of politicians Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Geert Wilders, and the terrorist plans to blow up the headquarters of the AIVD itself.
In addition, the advanced level of female emancipation in the Netherlands also seems to be finding echoes in jihadist circles, despite the fact that these circles so fiercely reject Dutch society. The report's authors write: "While radical Muslim women in other European countries are often invisible and play no more than a supporting role, they play a much more prominent part in the Netherlands". The report adds: "It would appear to be just a matter of time before these women become actively involved in violent activities."
Revised estimates
The AIVD says there are somewhere between 10 and 20 radical networks in the country at present, a broader estimate than that of 15 to 20, previously mentioned by Interior Minister Johan Remkes. The country's counter-terrorism database - known as the CT-infobox and accessible by the various Dutch intelligence authorities - once listed an average of some 150 suspect individuals who were being monitored. Now that number has been described as "a bit on the low side".
The AIVD says little, however, about the precise nature of the networks that are known to exist, although it describes them as varying in size and composition, and says some have foreign links while others don't. Apart from the Hofstad group, the service does not specifically name any groups which it is keeping an eye on.
The report says the 'old' Hofstad group has now been replaced by a 'new' version, which includes some of the old 'hard core' members - among them Samir Azzouz, who is now being held in detention once again - as well as new ones. The AIVD says most of the new 'recruits' are relatives or local acquaintances of the hardcore members.
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| Click to listen to an exclusive interview with AIVD chief Sybrand van Hulst | |
The AIVD report also contains a piece of disquieting news. Up until now, the service considered the risk of terrorists using chemical or biological weapons in the Netherlands to be small. This stance has now been modified somewhat. Although the AIVD does not mention the Netherlands by name, it states that, in all probability, Islamic terrorists will succeed in the coming years in carrying out an attack using a CBRN - Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear - weapon. This would most likely be a small, technically simple attack involving chemical or bacteriological material.
According to the AIVD, the number of victims of such an attack is likely to be small, but the social impact and upheaval would be great.
* RN Internet translation
Tags: AIVD, Azzouz, CBRN, Dutch, Hirsi Ali, hofstad, intelligence, Jihad, jihadisation, jihadist, muslims, netherlands, radicalisation, terrrorism, Theo, van Gogh, weapons, Wilders