With Israeli forces already engaged in a military offensive in Gaza, aimed at forcing the release of a soldier abducted by Palestinian militants last month, two more soldiers were abducted in the north of Israel on Wednesday by members of Lebanon's Hizbollah movement.
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One of Israel's former foreigner ministers, Shlomo Ben-Ami, told Radio Netherlands that he believes negotiations - and possibly a resulting exchange of prisoners - may be the only satisfactory solution for both sides.
Shlomo Ben-Ami (photo), who served as Israel's foreign minister from 2000 to 2001 under then Labour prime minister Ehud Barak, believes his country's initial response to the latest abductions will be a military one, "We are going to see the same pattern. In fact, we are already seeing it. Israel's forces are operating, and there are reports of fighting along the border."
Mounting pressureHowever, with international criticism already having been voiced about Israel's military campaign in Gaza - described by some as a 'disproportionate' response - Mr Ben-Ami also thinks the latest abductions, and a possible new offensive in Lebanon will put,"pressure - both internally in Israel, and internationally - on the Israeli government to start negotiations for an exchange of prisoners in order to stabilize the situation along the borders in the north and within the Gaza Strip."At the moment, however, it seems that any military response to the action by Hizbollah would enjoy broad support among the Israeli population, although that is likely to be short-lived, especially if it fails to produce the release of the abducted soldiers.
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Some critics of Israel have suggested that that the abduction of Israelis is convenient for the Israeli government because it allows it to settle old scores with enemies in Gaza and elsewhere. Mr Ben-Ami believes this is not the case at all: "This is not a serious argument, I think. We have a new government in Israel with leaders that do not really have any experience with these matters. And the Prime Minister has this idea of withdrawing unilaterally from the West Bank, in fact this is the raison d'etre of his entire government and the ruling party Kadima, and for him stability is of the essence if he wants to conduct such a unilateral disengagement." |
Furthermore, Prime Minister Olmert's popularity has been dipping of late, and his main aim - a unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank - has been put on the back burner by events in Gaza. It could, therefore, be to the long-term advantage of the prime minister to do what his cabinet has so far steadfastly refused to contemplate:
"In the history of the conflict between the Israelis and the Arabs and the Palestinians, leaders who felt they are politically strong and had the stamina and the political authority did negotiate and did conduct exchanges of prisoners."
In the 1980s, for example, then prime minister Yitzak Rabin controversially exchanged six Israeli soldiers 1,500 Palestinian prisoners. Later, 'hardliner' Ariel Sharon swapped 400 prisoners with Hizbollah for the release of one Israeli citizen. Mr Ben-Ami comments:"He [Sharon] did it because he felt he was politically strong and had sufficient authority to sustain criticism."
Despite Mr Ben-Ami's belief that Ehud Olmert (photo) needs to show such strength and realise that military means alone will not resolve the current crisis, he also thinks that such a change in attitude, "will have to be assisted by some 'friendly advice' from the United States and third parties."The question then is whether such 'friendly advice' will be enough to sway the Israeli government. Shlomo Ben-Ami believes, in any event, that Washington will not apply serious pressure on Mr Olmert:
"You see, the Americans are not pressuring, because they have confused the issues in a way. Because of that 'War on Terror' of President Bush, to him what is happening in Gaza is an extension of that same war, and he doesn't feel he should put pressure on Israel because Israel is doing - presumably - in Gaza what he is doing in Iraq. I think that his advisors need to explain to him that, yes, indeed, there is a problem of terrorism, but the political context is entirely different."
Tags: abductions, Barak, conflict, exchange of prisoners, Gaza, hezbollah, Hizbollah, Lebanon, middle east, military, negotiations, Olmert, peace, Sharon, Shlom Ben-Ami, soldiers, war on terror