It will take some getting used to in Pakistan, particularly for President Musharraf. Following sustained criticism, he gave up his military uniform. Musharraf will be succeeded as army leader by his confidant, general Kiyani. The ceremonial transfer was televised live. Stepping down as army leader makes Musharraf lose a substantial part of his power.
Musharraf, who came to power in a 1999 coup, felt he had to re-introduce the state of emergency in November to safeguard his position. He replaced judges who might declare his candidacy illegal, appointing judges who are more favourable to him. Musharraf's opponents say that a member of the military should be allowed to become politically active no earlier than two years after his dismissal from the forces.
 Embarking on a second term:
President Pervez Musharraf |
Taking off his army uniform does not mean that Musharraf is losing all of his influence on the army, says Talat Masood, a Pakistani analyst, himself a retired general.
"For some time he will continue to have an influence because he appointed some people on certain positions in the army. But in the long run, his successor Kiyani will create his own team."
Abuse
Analysts expect the army to stay away from the political scene for a while. According to Masood,
"The army realises that it is not good for the profession, for its image both nationally and abroad."
While Pakistanis used to like being associated with the army, the word 'soldier' (fodji in Urdu) is now a term of abuse. And despite the fear that many Pakistanis feel for terrorism and extremism, many disapprove of the military operations, because many innocent civilians are killed.
Another factor is that the army has work to do in the border areas with Afghanistan, where pro-Taliban extremists are controlling an expanding area. Pakistani army analyst Masood:
"The army should face challenges of its own, such as its professional tasks. And there is a considerable internal threat, caused by the increasing revolt in Pakistan."
Civilian government
Depending on the outcome of parliamentary elections on 8 January 2008, the new division of labour between army and government may impact on the war on terrorism, says Masood. If the elections are reasonably fair and free, a civilian government may take power. According to Masood,
"They could consider how economic development, political dialogue and a selective use of the military can all be applied to fight the war against terrorism, instead of relying fully on the army."Survival
As president, Musharraf will steer these developments, but for how long he can continue doing that remains to be seen, according to some analysts. One of them, Talat Hussain, Head of TV News at the Pakistani station Aaj, says:
"He is losing the army, two of his main opponents are back on the scene, and his party PML-Q is divided. It is going to be difficult for him to survive."
Hussain is referring to opposition leaders Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, who returned after years of exile to take part in the elections.
Unpredictable
Will Musharraf be able to complete his five-year term as president, given these circumstances? Masood again:
"I'm not so sure, because things in Pakistan change so fast. The dynamics are really unpredictable."
RNW translation (rk)
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